CEEMDAN-IPSO-LSTM: A Novel Model for Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Systems.

Urban rail transit (URT) is a key mode of public transport, which serves for greatest user demand. Short-term passenger flow prediction aims to improve management validity and avoid extravagance of public transport resources. In order to anticipate passenger flow for URT, managing nonlinearity, correlation, and periodicity of data series in a single model is difficult. This paper offers a short-term passenger flow prediction combination model based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and long-short term memory neural network (LSTM) in order to more accurately anticipate the short-period passenger flow of URT. In the meantime, the hyperparameters of LSTM were calculated using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO). First, CEEMDAN-IPSO-LSTM model performed the CEEMDAN decomposition of passenger flow data and obtained uncoupled intrinsic mode functions and a residual sequence after removing noisy data. Second, we built a CEEMDAN-IPSO-LSTM passenger flow prediction model for each decomposed component and extracted prediction values. Third, the experimental results showed that compared with the single LSTM model, CEEMDAN-IPSO-LSTM model reduced by 40 persons/35 persons, 44 persons/35 persons, 37 persons/31 persons, and 46.89%/35.1% in SD, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, and increase by 2.32%/3.63% and 2.19%/1.67% in R and R2, respectively. This model can reduce the risks of public health security due to excessive crowding of passengers (especially in the period of COVID-19), as well as reduce the negative impact on the environment through the optimization of traffic flows, and develop low-carbon transportation.

Development of novel hybrid models for the prediction of COVID-19 in Kuwait

The first case of COVID-19 in Kuwait was reported on February 24, 2020. There is a need to develop a prediction model for estimating this epidemic size. In this study, we aimed to develop and compare several prediction models using real-time data of COVID-19 from February 24 to June 12, 2020. We modeled the uncertainty and non-stationary real-time data of COVID-19 cases using a multilayer model with different decomposition techniques. We applied our proposed hybrid methodology to predict COVID-19 cases in Kuwait. We further evaluated the performance of the novel hybrid model with others using mean relative error, mean absolute error, and mean square error. We found that our proposed hybrid approach performed better than others for predicting COVID-19 cases.